The world is economically and politically unstable now. Oil prices have nearly doubled and countries are at war. Much of this is a result of the US/Isreal war against Iran.

The war predicated on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Why does those who have nuclear weapons, get to dictate who else may have them? Surely if all countries are sovereign nations, then they could develop whatever weapons that feel they may need to protect themselves.

The there is also the claims of persecution of the Iranian people, by a government described as a brutal ideological regime. Protest and political discourse are not allowed. It is reported by some media houses that at least 30 000 Iranian protesters have been killed in the last two months. These numbers are unconfirmed due to the ban on international and independent media from reporting inside Iran. Therefore, regime change is required according to the US.

Once again, the question is whether a country has the right to interfere with the internal politics of another. Democracies are based on governments by the people for the people.  Do I have a right to tell my neighbour what to do in his own home?

Right now, the US and South Africa are at loggerheads due the internal politics in this country. Rightfully, our government has told the US to mind their own business.

He continues to push the lie of a white genocide in South Africa although farm murders are real and BEE is a reality. Another lie is the mass expropriation of land; no government is not willy nilly taken people’s land away.

However, the US has the right to “unfriend” us, if they don’t agree with our policies.

Be that as it may, the logic of this war does not seem to be routed in idealism.

The Situation in the US

Depending on who you ask, US President Donald J Trump is the most loved or most hated president in the history of the United States of America.

His treatment of the immigration issue has divided that country. The results however do paint a different picture. If you took Trump out of the picture, having closed and controlled borders are not a bad thing.

Immigration has placed a heavy burden on the government of South Africa as well. Even we have amended our immigration legislation to tighten our own borders.

Yet Trump faces a backlash in his country as the issue is split along party lines with the Democrats vehemently opposing the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents across the US. It is not feasible to have an open border and expect your citizens to support immigrants.

But once again emotions have clouded the situation, we must distinguish between illegal immigrants and those who go through the legal processes to obtain US   citizenship.

Would you allow someone to climb through your window and make themselves comfortable in your house and now claim to be a resident of your house?

In Trump’s first term, all his policies were geared towards a US centric position. All his policies put the US first. Can we fault him for that? Maybe a South African first policy would turn this country around.

Nonetheless, whatever he is doing in the US internally should be of no concern to ourselves, if we believe in the sovereignty of a country.

Trump’s second term has seen him flex his muscles outwards. It started with the freezing of aid to the rest of the world. South Africa was a victim of this, as millions of dollars in aid was taken away from this country. Some of this aid went into very important health interventions like HIV. But can we really be mad? Surely you wouldn’t be happy to give your money away to strangers and even people who intend to cause you harm. Never bite the hand that feeds you.

Then there were the tariff wars and once again, Trump’s argument was that tariffs should be fair and equitable. Why should I pay you 30% more for an item when buying from you, when you only pay me the price I’m asking, when buying from me? Once again, South Africa was victim of a Trump policy.  Tariffs should be reciprocal. Tariffs also allowed for the resurgence of the manufacturing sector in the US.

Next Trump went into Venezuela and deposed Nicolas Maduro, an alleged drug kingpin and president of that country. Now Venezuela, who has large crude oil reserves, is more US centric that under Maduro. His sights remain fixed on Cuba as well. Subduing Cuba would effectively allow the US control over the Gulf of Mexico / America.

The next jaw dropping move Trump made was to declare war on Iran and we discussed the predicate for the war already.

Genius or Super Villain

There are many more things Trump has done but these are the key aspects to look at. And it brings us to a critical issue, is Trump a genius or a supper villain? Are we watching a game of 4D chess?

So, looking at all Trump has done so far, there seem to be a brilliant strategy behind all this madness.

Firstly, he secured his borders and took away support to possible hidden enemies. Then he secured the world’s largest oil reserves and is securing the Atlantic Ocean on the American Side. He then successfully choked off the oil supply from the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most import economical water way in the world. Most countries get their oil from ships using the strait to transport oil from Iran, Saudia Arabia and so on. Between the US and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is being kept closed. A sick game is being played between these two, one country says they have opened it and then the other says no we are closing it. Either way, the strait is being choked closed whilst the rest of the world pays dearly for oil.

The result of the closure the strait is that oil prices have skyrocketed. But wait! The US has oil and its new friend Venezuela. Check any marine traffic app or website, more tanker ships are making their way to the US and Venezuela. Why would that be?

This explains why the Venezuelan government went silent about Maduro. The new Venezuelan president must have smelt the coffee and now will be reaping in billions of petro-dollars.

However, the rest of the world was not invited to the party but must foot the bill. Our economies will suffer in the short term whilst the US and some of its allies will benefit greatly from this economic turmoil.

Trump has promised to make the US great again and if its citizens were to just hang in there for a bit longer, they may see prosperity coming.

This premise is based on the fact that Trump is in fact a genius and we all being led to believe he is a foolish idiot sowing destruction across the world for his own ego. And may be that is exactly what he is, a foolish, egotistical idiot.

History will judge that.

It is undeniable that the mere mention of the name Donald Trump sparks a flurry of emotions, both good and bad. He has succeeded in having the entire world focus on him.

The Lesson

There is a lesson to be learnt here. As a country we became to depended on the US to support us and our economy whilst allowing other countries to rob us blindly.

Just in terms of trade, we expected the US to allow us to sell freely in their markets but allow countries like China to flood our markets with their cheap products. We have a net negative trade with China. In other words, we import more from China than we are allowed to export to China.

We opened our country to the world and now we reap consequences of an open border. Unemployment in SA is at an all-time high and crime seems uncontrollable. But don’t blame the foreigners, blame yourself.

There is nothing to be gain from poking our nose in the affairs of other countries, whilst ignoring our own internal struggles. Start here. We love to say the US must respect our sovereignty whilst trying to tell Trump what to do.

We need to have peace on the Cape Flats and the rest of South Africa before we can demand peace in the world.

In no way is this an endorsement of Donald Trump.  We need to look at the big picture here and smell the coffee before its too late for us to rescue ourselves. Put South Africa first.

Just as a final thought, we should choose our friends and allies carefully.